Archive for ◊ February, 2009 ◊

Author: admin
• Friday, February 27th, 2009

The big news this week was the Obama administration’s budget proposal, which takes on what has long been considered a sacred cow by trying to reduce the mortgage-interest tax deduction for top earners. Meanwhile, Iceland’s government has started selling off real estate to stay afloat. Here’s what else was going on:

Click here to see more of Iceland’s properties

LOCAL NEWS
Condo auctions come to New York City (New York Times) Some New York buyers, meanwhile are walking away from six-figure deposits on apartments. (NYT)

The population of Maricopa, Ariz., soared during the housing boom, rising to 37,000 last year from 1,400 a decade ago, making it one of the nation’s fastest-growing towns. Now the town is struggling as many homeowners are trapped in houses that are worth less than their mortgage and others are walking away. (The Wall Street Journal)

Boston’s luxury condo market headed down. (Boston Herald)

$10,000 state tax credit for buyers of newly-built homes in California goes into effect Sunday. (L.A. Land) Meanwhile, home sales in California jumped 100% in December, according to the state’s association of Realtors. (Hot Property)

BUYING AND SELLING
One blogger suggests it’s time to encourage renting to keep Americans more mobile and to discourage sprawl. One idea: tax incentives that get people to live closer to their place of work. (Greater Greater Washington)

Meanwhile the relative cost of owning versus renting is swinging back in favor of homeownership in some U.S. markets, buoyed by several quarters of sharp declines in home prices. (WSJ)

The economic stimulus bill contains provisions to compensate service members who sell their home at a loss or have been foreclosed upon because they were forced to move after a base closure, reassignment or a combat wound required them to be relocated near a health facility. (Washington Post)

Boomer wealth is evaporating due to housing bust. The homeowner in 2009 will have less–not more–wealth than their non-home-owning counterparts, according to a new report out from economists David Rosnick and Dean Baker. (Center for Economic Policy and Research)

HIGH-END LISTINGS
Strapped for cash, Iceland’s government puts its ambassador’s homes up for sale in Washington, D.C., New York and London. (WSJ)

A Denver couple build their home and an apartment building next door to an art museum in Denver. (WSJ)

Where Nixon once dwelled. Just hitting the market: a house newly built on land that was formerly part of the so-called ‘Western White House’. (WSJ/House of the Day)

Ten priciest listings in Los Angeles. (The Real Estalker)

Good deals on luxury vacation homes. (NYT)

Author: admin
• Friday, February 27th, 2009

Michael Corkery reports:

If you are facing foreclosure, don’t look to your state law to help you. In most cases, homeowners have fewer legal rights to fight eviction than renters.

That’s the conclusion of the National Consumer Law Center, an advocacy group, which is calling for an overhaul of state foreclosure laws. The group points out that:

  • In 30 states and the District of Columbia mortgage holders don’t need a judge’s permission to foreclose on someone’s house and resell it.
  • In 33 states and D.C., the lender does not need to personally serve the homeowner with a foreclosure notice in order to start the process.
  • In every state but Massachusetts, New Jersey and Pennsylvania, lenders can immediately impose default fees and other costs as soon as a homeowner falls behind on payments.
  • Even as the Obama administration devises a plan to encourage more loan modifications, the consumer law group warns that state laws are greasing the way for additional waves of foreclosures.
  • The Consumer Law Center argues that renters have more due process protections in the eviction process, after a series of reforms of landlord-tenant laws. But even in states such as Florida where homeowners are ostensibly afforded more legal protection from lenders the strain on the court system from mass foreclosures may be compromising homeowners’ due process. (See A Florida Court’s ‘Rocket Docket’ Blasts Through Foreclosure Cases)

    It’s unclear whether more homeowner friendly laws would ultimately prevent foreclosures or just buy the homeowner more time. But over the long term, it seems only fair — to both homeowners and lenders — that foreclosures laws be standardized across all states so that the fate of one’s property does not depend on where it happens to be located.

    Author: John Travis
    • Thursday, February 26th, 2009

    Economists and others weigh in on a raft of negative economic news, including a rise in claims for unemployment benefits and declines in new-home sales and durable-goods orders.

    Jobless Claims

  • Claims do have some tendency to rise during the week containing the Presidents Day holiday, but the latest increase looks too large to be due purely to seasonal adjustment problems… The latest round of claims data signal that the February employment report will show another large payroll loss; indeed, the February payroll loss should be greater than in previous months. Over the last three months payrolls fell at an average of 591,000, but in February they will likely drop at least 650,000. The unemployment rate should increase in around 8.0%. –Abiel Reinhart, J.P. Morgan
  • The labor market looks even worse than our already weak read. Initial jobless claims increased to 667,000, easily the high for the cycle, and a break higher from the 630,000 range they had sat in for the past three weeks. This substantial increase indicates that the employment situation continues to get even worse, which means that the vicious cycle downward between the labor market and demand continues. Along with this, continuing claims moved over 5 million, also the high for the cycle, as laid off workers have a difficult time finding new jobs. –Goldman Sachs
  • The trend in claims is sharply upwards , reflecting the depth of the recession, and we see no reason for it to peak anytime soon. Indeed, adjusted for population growth claims are still well short of the peaks seen in the mid-70s and early 80s; to match them now would require the weekly numbers to breach the 1 million mark. We fervently hope that does not happen but we are not confident. Companies are throwing in the towel as they recognize that no sector is safe. On the back of these data we have to expect the rate of fall of payrolls to rise further; 750,000 monthly declines are looming. –Ian Shepherdson, High Frequency Economics
  • Continuing claims leaped by 114,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis in the week ended February 14 to 5,112,000 after having jumped by 4,998,000 in the preceding week (this series is reported with a one-week lag vis-à-vis initial claims). Measured on a four-week moving average basis, continuing claims are 2,186,000 (80%) higher than they were a year ago, which points to considerably weaker labor market conditions because it indicates that those who are unemployed are finding it increasingly difficult to get re-employed. –Joshua Shapiro, MFR Inc.
  • New-Home Sales
  • Sales declined for the sixth month in a row as builders continued to reduce construction and work off inventory. We expect sales activity will remain constrained over the coming months as buyers struggle with access to credit and worry about their income prospects and the U.S. economy. Sales in the hard-hit bubble markets in the West continue to struggle. –Adam G. York, Wachovia Economics Group
  • New home sales very likely remained weak in February, as mortgage purchase applications are down, the homebuilder survey remained extremely low, and the economy continued to contract at a rapid pace. It is true that affordability has increased, but the economy may have to stabilize some before buyers feel comfortable re-entering the market. Of course, even when the economy does eventually recover, there will be a large stock of existing properties competing with the new home market. –Abiel Reinhart, J.P. Morgan
  • A key problem homebuilders have pointed to recently is that they are unable to compete with the flood of foreclosed homes hitting the market at fire sale prices, so even with housing affordability surging, efforts to stem foreclosures remain key to stabilizing the housing market. In the mean time, there is just about no floor for how far housing starts can fall from already record low levels with inventories this out of control. –Ted Wieseman, Morgan Stanley
  • With demand still trending down, the inventory of unsold new homes is still too high, and the months’ supply at the current sales rate is a huge 13.3 months. This suggests that prices need to fall further to stimulate sufficient demand to begin to balance the market. Until prices reach market-clearing levels, sales will remain weak and housing starts are going to stay under downward pressure. –Joshua Shapiro, MFR Inc.
  • We thought December’s rise in mortgage applications and the uptick in buyer traffic reported by the NAHB survey might be reflected in a modest rise in sales, but alas not. We do think, though, that sales are now very close to their floor. Activity … can’t fall much further; sales will not drop to zero. The absolute level of inventory continues to fall, down 29.9% y/y, but because sales are falling even faster the months supply is still rising, up to 13.3 in January from 12.2 in December. This will keep prices falling for the rest of this year at least. –Ian Shepherdson, High Frequency Economics
  • Note that the unadjusted data show that just 23,000 new homes were sold in U.S. in January and only 4,000 in the West Census region, which includes Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming! –RDQ Economics
  • The new home sales numbers are an unreliable measure of the state of this market, because they are based on small samples. Thus, they are volatile, and most of the reported numbers are not statistically significant. For example, the Census Bureau’s press release shows new home sales in the Northeast increasing 12.5% in January. This estimate should not be taken at face value, because just below it in the press release is its standard deviation, a plus or minus 93.0%! –Patrick Newport, IHS Global Insight
  • Durable-Goods Orders
  • Yet another extremely weak durable goods report, pointing to intense weakness in business capital spending. Overall orders plunged 5.2% in January, and the key core gauge, nondefense capital goods ex aircraft, plummeted 5.4% on top of a downwardly revised 5.8% drop in December. Over the past six months, core capital goods orders have now collapsed at an unprecedented 37% annual rate. Capital goods shipments also showed extreme weakness, leading us to cut our first quarter GDP forecast to -6.0% from -5.0%… We also now see the fourth quarter being revised down to -5.5% from – 3.8%… Other than a surge in the volatile civilian aircraft component, every major category of orders was down sharply in January. –Ted Wieseman, Morgan Stanley
  • There is a tendency for the seasonally adjusted January durables number to print weak, but the magnitude of the decline makes it hard to dismiss this morning’s report as a seasonal quirk. The weakness in the durables report was broad-based, with non-defense aircraft orders and shipments being one of the only bright spots. –Michael Feroli, J.P. Morgan Chase
  • The durable goods report shows demand evaporating both domestically and globally for big-ticket capital equipment investments. The decline in orders was severe and almost across the board… The only thing even resembling a chink of light was that companies did manage to reduce their inventories, the first decline in this cycle. But sales are still falling so fast that the inventory reduction wasn’t enough to keep the inventory/sales ratio from rising yet again. So companies have much more work to do before their inventory levels will be comfortable. –Nigel Gault, IHS Global Insight
  • Durable goods orders fell more than expected in January, continuing the recent streak of worse than expected industrial sector activity reports. Tight credit conditions and the highly uncertain outlook for growth appear to be weighing heavily on businesses’ capital spending plans. –Zach Pandl, Nomura Global Economics
  • The decline in durable goods orders in January was immense and broad based. The capital goods shipments data have started the year on an extremely weak note, pointing to another sharp decline in business equipment investment in the first quarter. –RDQ Economics
  • Businesses are cutting back drastically to survive the recession. Declining for a record sixth consecutive month, durable goods orders were led lower by significant declines in defense spending and computer & electronics orders. After inventories piled higher for 16 straight months, we finally saw a drawdown in January. If this continues, we could see the pace of decline in orders diminish. –Tim Quinlan, Wachovia Economics Group
  • Compiled by Phil Izzo

    Author: John Travis
    • Thursday, February 26th, 2009

    Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, in an interview with PBS’s Jim Lehrer to air Wednesday evening, offered the Obama administration’s strongest declaration yet knocking down talk of nationalizing banks. “I think that’s the wrong strategy for the country and I don’t think it’s the necessary strategy,” he said. Mr. Geithner also defined capital injections that would follow the stress tests as “insurance from the government” designed to improve the likelihood of banks attracting private capital.

    Following are excerpts from his interview, based on a transcript released by The NewsHour With Jim Lehrer:

    On details of the stress tests and capital program announced Wednesday:

    “There’s this careful health assessment designed to sort of look forward, make sure these institutions have an additional cushion of resources necessary to withstand a more severe economic environment. But we’re also providing the details on the terms of capital the government will be willing to provide where that’s necessary. Of course, we want these firms to be able to raise capital in the private markets, but we’re providing sort of a backstop in the form of insurance to make sure that again they’re strong enough to get through a more challenging economic environment.”

    What stress tests will look for:

    “The basic framework is designed again to look at the scale of losses they might face … if we went through a more challenging environment — economic environment. And again so that they can reassure the world and we can be confident that they’ve got that necessary cushion of resources that allow them to lend to support recovery. Because you know right now there’s this cloud of uncertainty over the economy and the financial system because of uncertainty about how deep and how long the recession might be and that’s making the financial system more defensive. People are hoarding capital and liquidity. And the best way to break that and arrest it is to try to ahead of that and get these institutions to look forward at again the range of — they might face as we go forward and critically to make sure they’ve got the cushion of resources. You can think of this as a form of insurance from the government that they can get through that.”

    Might some banks fail the stress test?

    “It’s not a pass-fail test. … It’s directed to making sure they have the margin of additional resources they need. …. These banks now have very substantial amounts of capital relative to what you would have seen in the U.S. economy going into previous recessions. But we want to make sure again they have that additional cushion, even if things deteriorate further going forward, that they’re going to be able to lend and be in a strong position.”

    On the question of nationalization:

    “Jim, I think that’s the wrong strategy for the country and I don’t think it’s the necessary strategy. What we need to do is to make sure that these institutions have the resources necessary to perform their critical function on an ongoing basis in our economy as a whole, these major banking institutions. Now, there may be circumstances in which we have to provide for the benefit of the economy as a whole exceptional levels of support and when we do that as the President said last night we’re going to be very careful that that comes with conditions to make sure our support is helping support lending, that it comes with conditions to make sure these institutions restructure so they are stronger, so that there is accountability, and so that we make it more likely and not less likely that private capital comes in and replaces the government’s capital as soon as that’s possible.”

    On whether the government would run banks in exchange for propping them up:

    “I think our system works better if these institutions are managed and remain in private hands. But again we’re going to have to make sure that they have the support necessary to get through this and play their critical role and we’re going to do that.”

    What are the strings attached to the financial support?

    “The conditions are going to be very important so you will see conditions to make sure that the support generates more lending than would have been possible, that the support does not go to play dividends or excess compensation, to make sure that the conditions come with the kind of changes in the structure of the entity necessary to make them stronger going forward, and they provide accountability. And the terms are very important too because not just to protect the taxpayer but because we want the terms designed so that as conditions normalize, our support is expensive and unattractive and therefore these firms will have a big incentive to go out and get private capital to replace the government’s capital as soon as possible, and this will allow us to solve this more quickly than governments that typically address these crises.

    “The big lesson of financial crises is that governments tend to underestimate the scale of the problem, they move too slowly, they’re too tentative and gradual, they escalate late, and that makes crises deeper, that causes more damages to businesses and to households and to families, and they’re ultimately more expensive to the taxpayer resulting in higher long-term deficits. So we’re trying to get ahead of this by moving more aggressively to try to resolve this uncertainty, provide capital to the system and help get those credit markets flowing again.”

    Author: John Travis
    • Wednesday, February 25th, 2009

    Economists and others weigh in on the larger than expected drop in existing-home sales.

  • So much for signs of stability. Despite the seemingly constant chorus of calls that the housing market is showing signs of stabilizing, the actual data just don’t seem to want to cooperate… Some will take consolation from inventories of homes for sale having fallen in January to 3.6 million units, the lowest level since January 2007. But, given that the pace of sales dropped off, the months supply of homes for sale, the more meaningful inventory metric, rose to 9.6 months in January. It should be noted that the inventory data contained in the existing home sales report are not seasonally adjusted, and in recent years inventories have tended to rise in January. That they fell this January is likely more a reflection of prospective sellers giving up on selling their homes in this economic environment, at least at a price they are willing to accept. –Richard F. Moody, Mission Residential
  • January existing home sales fell 5.3% to 4.49 million, below the consensus 4.79 million and a new cycle low, with sales at their lowest level in 11 years. This is very disappointing, because the pending sales index pointed to sales nearer 4.9 million. Pending sales are not a perfect guide to actual sales but they are all we have on a month-to-month basis… In January, it appears, the growth in sales of foreclosed homes was offset by the continued drop in sales by private sellers. –Ian Shepherdson, High Frequency Economics
  • The drop back in the number of existing U.S. home sales in January dashes hopes that housing activity had found a floor. The fall from 4,740,000 in December to 4,490,000 more than reversed the rise seen the previous month and took existing sales down to a new cycle low. Sales are now about 40% below their peak and 8.2% below the level seen this time last year. The pending home sales index had suggested that sales would build on December’s rise and anecdotal evidence had reported a rise in sales of foreclosed properties. Instead, and barring a surge in the number of new home sales (due tomorrow), it appears that the inventory overhang that is pulling down prices is still rising. At the same time, this morning’s mortgage applications figures revealed a drop in the application for purchase index to 250.5 last week from 257.3 the week before. The spike in applications seen after the sharp fall in mortgage rates towards the end of last year has now more or less been reversed. Overall, the longer housing activity remains in the doldrums, the less likely it is that the economy will see a decent recovery in 2010 as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke hopes. –Paul Dales, Capital Economics
  • The National Association of Realtors, who compile these data, estimated that 45% of the non-seasonally adjusted sales that occurred in the month were foreclosure-linked or otherwise distressed, which followed an estimated similar share in the preceding three months. While distressed sales continue to account for a huge chunk of overall activity, part of the market clearing process is that distressed properties must be sold, so the fact that this is occurring is good. Still, it certainly depresses prices, and there are plenty more foreclosed (or soon to be foreclosed) homes in the pipeline. The inescapable conclusion, therefore, is that median sales prices will continue to decline for the foreseeable future. –Joshua Shapiro, MFR Inc.
  • The number of homes available for sale fell 2.7%, failing to keep up with the drop in the sales pace. As a result, the months’ supply of unsold homes rose to 9.6 months from 9.4 months. While this represents some improvement from levels of 11 months or more hit several times last year, it still remains far above more balanced levels near 6 months. –Ted Wieseman, Morgan Stanley
  • The rate of decline in existing home sales over the last three months suggests that the market has not yet entered a bottoming phase and housing remains under considerable pressure. The only silver linings within the report (and this may be grasping at straws) are i) the continued outperformance of sales in the West and ii) that fact that the rate of decline in home prices did not intensify in January. –RDQ Economics
  • Compiled by Phil Izzo

    Offer your reactions in the comments section.

    Dig into an interactive summary of economists’ forecasts for the coming year from the latest WSJ.com survey.

    Author: John Travis
    • Wednesday, February 25th, 2009

    A roundup of economic news from around the Web.

  • Bernanke Rally: On the Econbrowser blog, James Hamilton is skeptical of the ties between Ben Bernanke’s comments yesterday and the stock market rally. “Tuesday’s stock market rally was pretty impressive. But can the mere words of the Federal Reserve Chair actually produce a 4% increase in the value of the U.S. capital stock? … OK, so if it wasn’t reassurances from Bernanke, do I have a better explanation for what could have produced such a big move in stock prices? No I don’t, other than to suggest that perhaps we were in pretty much the same situation Tuesday afternoon as we had been on Friday morning.” In the post, Hamilton references an item on Paul Krugman’s Conscience of a Liberal blog, where Krugman is critical of Treasury plans. “What we want to do is clean up the bank’s balance sheet, so that it no longer has to be a ward of the state. When the FDIC confronts a bank like this, it seizes the thing, cleans out the stockholders, pays off some of the debt, and reprivatizes. What Treasury now seems to be proposing is converting some of the green equity to blue equity — converting preferred to common. It’s true that preferred stock has some debt-like qualities — there are required dividend payments, etc.. But does anyone think that the reason banks are crippled is that they are tied down by their obligations to preferred stockholders, as opposed to having too much plain vanilla debt? I just don’t get it. And my sinking feeling that the administration plan is to rearrange the deck chairs and hope the iceberg melts just keeps getting stronger.”
  • Explaining Common Equity: Writing for the Baseline Scenario blog, James Kwak aims to offer an updated overview of the differences between common and preferred shares. “I still don’t understand why people care so much about whether the government owns more or less than 50% of the common shares. This just seems like a fig leaf. The more important issue which people can argue about is whether government is controlling Citigroup’s day-to-day operations. (Some say that’s good, some say it’s bad.) According to The New York Times, this is already happening. Alternatively, if you want to minimize government control, the government could tie its own hands; for example, no matter what its percentage ownership, the government’s stock purchase agreement could say that it has the right to appoint a minority of the board of directors but no more than that.”
  • Lesson From Sweden: On the Peterson Institute’s RealTime Economic Issues Watch blog, Anders Aslund looks at what the U.S. can learn from the Swedish model. “The common American idea that the Swedish bank resolution involved major nationalization is a sheer misunderstanding. Only one failing private bank, Gota Banken, was merged with an equally bankrupt state bank. Sweden avoided private-public partnerships, of which Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are the most telling and repulsive example, because, as Larry Summers so memorably has stated, public-private partnerships usually means that profits are privatized and losses nationalized. In sum, in Sweden bad debts were not taken over by the state or transferred to any aggregator state bank; but each bank, private or state-owned, established its own bad bank. The Swedish model avoided the trading of depressed assets in the midst of the crisis, while they were internally valued at their low market value. If nobody can assess the value of an asset, it is probably not worth much. Only one bankrupt bank was nationalized.”
  • Fixing Banks: Writing for voxeu, Salvatore Rossi looks at what’s needed to fix the banking industry. “There are two schools of thought on how to get credit flowing again. One suggests buying the toxic assets, the other says to recapitalize banks. This column says that both approaches are necessary, though the right balance will vary across nations. The real difficulty is aligning incentives – in both pricing assets and recapitalizing banks, bank managers’ interests may thwart governments’ objectives.”
  • Compiled by Phil Izzo

    Author: admin
    • Tuesday, February 24th, 2009

    Nick Timiraos reports:

    President Barack Obama’s housing stability plan is less accessible to homeowners in the nation’s hardest hit housing markets, according to data from real estate Web site Zillow.com.

    The plan offers borrowers with little to no equity in their homes the opportunity to refinance their loans, among other provisions. But there are two major restrictions that limit borrowers’ eligibility to refinance. That plan is limited to loans within the conforming limits that are eligible for backing from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which stand at $417,000 for most of the country but rise to as high as $729,750 in the most expensive housing markets, and to borrowers that have a loan-to-value of 80% to 105% on their first mortgage. A separate initiative would allow some underwater homeowners to apply for a government subsidized loan modification.

    Nationally, one in four mortgage holders meet two major eligibility criteria for the refinance proposal, but that number falls in certain housing markets that have been the hardest hit by the housing downturn.

    Only 9% of mortgage holders in the Los Angeles metro area are eligible to refinance, according to Zillow research. An additional 8% of borrowers have a loan-to-value that exceeds 105%, and another 8% of borrowers have loans that meet the 80%-105% loan-to-value criteria but are so-called “jumbo” loans that exceed the conforming limits. (An article in today’s WSJ looks at some of the other problems hitting jumbo borrowers: Jumbo Mortgages, Jumbo Headaches)

    The result? “Not as many people as you would expect in these markets that were previously overheated are going to be able to avail themselves of the plan,” says Stan Humphries, vice president of data and analytics for Zillow.com.

    Here’s a closer look at how many borrowers are — and aren’t — eligible to refinance in specific housing markets:

    • In Miami-Fort Lauderdale, around 17% of mortgage holders meet the refinance criteria. Of the borrowers that don’t qualify, one-quarter have conforming loans that exceed the required 105% loan-to-value and 6% have jumbo loans.

    • In New York and northern New Jersey, nearly 16% of all borrowers could be eligible to refinance. In the pool of ineligible borrowers, 3% of borrowers are too far upside-down in their homes, and nearly 9% of borrowers have jumbo loans.

    • In the San Diego region, some 12% of borrowers could qualify for the plan. Of the excluded borrowers, some 13% of conforming borrowers exceed the 105% loan-to-value limit, and 17% have jumbo loans.

    • In San Francisco, some 8% of borrowers could be eligible. Of the excluded borrowers, around 7% of conforming borrowers exceed the 105% loan-to-value limit, and 21% have jumbo loans.

    • In the San Jose-Santa Clara, Calif. metro area, just 7% of borrowers could qualify for the plan. Of those excluded, 3% don’t have enough equity and 25% are jumbo borrowers.

    While Mr. Humphries says the plan is “certainly better than nothing,” he says that the limited impact on the nation’s hardest-hit markets could undermine the goal of stabilizing home price declines by stemming foreclosures.

    Readers, what do you think? Will you be able to take advantage of this component of the housing stability plan? If you’re planning to refinance through this program, or if you’d like to but you’re excluded by loan limits or loan-to-value limits, we’d like to hear from you. Email: nick.timiraos@wsj.com.

    Author: John Travis
    • Tuesday, February 24th, 2009

    Economists and others weigh in on the much larger than expected decline in U.S. consumer confidence.

  • The consumer confidence report is shockingly weak as confidence plunged to another record low. Of particular concern is the dramatic deterioration in the net assessment of the labor market (jobs “plentiful” less “hard to get”) which, along with the rise in jobless claims in early February, points to a payroll decline of at least 700,000 in the month (also, the rise in jobs “hard to get” and the insured unemployment rate suggest that the unemployment rate rose to 7.9% in February from 7.6% in January, and a reading of 8.0% is quite possible). –RDQ Economics
  • The labor market details of this report were very weak… The labor market differential was the lowest since February 1992. The unemployment rate peaked at 7.8% in the middle of that year, slightly above the current rate of 7.6%. However, people now have much lower expectations for future employment than they did in recession of the early 1990s. The share of people who think there will be more jobs six months from now less the share who think there will be fewer jobs was -40.2%. Only a reading of -47.5% in December 1973 was lower. –Abiel Reinhart, J.P. Morgan
  • Worsening labor market prospects and ongoing announcements of further layoffs likely weighed heavily on consumers minds in February… Confidence was also shattered by plunging stock prices and further deterioration of wealth. Consumers’ plans to purchase large ticket items worsened further in February, with only plans to purchase major appliances improving slightly from the previous month’s reading. –Brian Fabbri, BNP Paribas
  • Consumers continued to worry about major headwinds facing both the U.S. economy and their own personal finances… With consumers so worried about the future it is no surprise that consumer spending is plunging, particularly in the area of big-ticket durables… The labor differential, the difference between consumers who see jobs as plentiful and those see them as hard to get, continued to decline. –Adam G. York, Wachovia Economics Group
  • Expectations are usually sensitive to both gasoline and stock prices, but the cashflow gain from falling gas prices is clearly being more than offset by the wealth destruction implied by the drop in stock prices. The collapse in home prices is presumably hurting badly too. If maintained at its February level, the expectations index is consistent with real consumers’ spending falling by about 5% year-to-year. In December it was down 1.7% so there is still some way to go, unfortunately. –Ian Shepherdson, High Frequency Economics
  • Wage and salary income growth has evaporated, credit is very tight, home prices continue to decline, financial asset values have been decimated, and household balance sheets are extremely stressed… Households are reverting to a more sustainable spending path vis-à-vis income that allows scope for paying down debt and adding to savings. These are longer-term trends, which, when combined with the brutal cyclical declines in employment we are now seeing, makes it very likely that the U.S. consumer will remain a drag on economic activity in coming quarters. Fiscal stimulus will help to blunt this, but is unlikely to turn the tide completely. –Joshua Shapiro, MFR Inc.
  • Consumer assessments of the economy collapsed in February to its lowest level in the 41 years that data has been collected. Much of this weakness is due to accelerating job losses, deepening house price declines, soaring foreclosures, tighter credit standards, financial market volatility, and political wrangling in Washington. Confidence is deeply, deeply mired in recessionary territory, resulting in big declines in real consumer spending. –Stephen A. Wood, Insight Economics
  • Compiled by Phil Izzo

    Offer your reactions in the comments section.

    Dig into an interactive summary of economists’ forecasts for the coming year from the latest WSJ.com survey.

    Author: John Travis
    • Tuesday, February 24th, 2009

    A roundup of economic news from around the Web.

  • Privatize the Banks: Writing for the Baseline Scenario, Simon Johnson says it’s time to privatize the banks, since they have been de facto nationalized already. “Why have we de facto nationalized? Because the private credit system – particularly large banks – is weakened and not getting any better. Attempts to deal with the problem banks are apparently blocked by the political power of influential bankers. How then do we really privatize? By exercising leadership: take over insolvent banks and immediately reprivatize them. The new controlling owners can replace the boards of directors (tell me: why haven’t they resigned already?), and these boards can decide who to keep and who to let go from existing management. The taxpayer retains a significant number of shares (or the option to buy common stock) as a way to ensure upside participation – the economy will one day recover, and that will be a very good day for owners of the remaining banks.” Separately, on Salon’s How the World Works blog, Andrew Leonard looks at who’s against bank nationalization. “Barry Ritholtz has a list of who he thinks are for or against nationalization. The first five names on the anti-list are Barack Obama, Tim Geithner, Lawrence H. Summers, Barney Frank and Bernanke. What do those names all have in common? They are in the government, and their every utterance moves markets. Which means, according to David Kotok, the chairman of the money management advisory firm Cumberland Advisors, whose thoughts on the financial markets are frequently featured at Ritholtz’s blog, The Big Picture, that they are almost by definition prohibited from forthrightly endorsing nationalization!“
  • Home Mortgage Deductions: Writing for the New York Times’s Economix blog, Edward Glaeser suggests eliminating a sacred cow. “The Great Depression provided an opportunity to rethink old policies in a major way. In the current morass, everything should, once again, be open for debate. One sacred cow that has long been in need of a good stockyard is the home mortgage interest deduction. So, in the spirit of libertarian progressivism, I suggest gradually reducing the upper limit on the deduction to loans of up to $300,000, and then refunding the tax revenues in a more productive manner. “
  • Good and Bad Banks: On their blog, Susan Woodward and Robert Hall say that a key to having a good bank-bad bank scenario work is to give the bad bank ownership of the good bank. “Much thinking about bank policy takes an old-fashioned point of view by assuming that a bank finances all of its assets through deposits. The good-bank/bad-bank separation has no advantage in that traditional setting. But for a bank that is mostly financed by non-deposit borrowing, moving the non-deposit liabilities to the bad bank has an advantage in dealing with insolvency.”
  • Formula That Killed Wall Street: Writing for Wired, Felix Salmon looks at the model that helped bring down the market. “David X. Li, it’s safe to say, won’t be getting that Nobel anytime soon. One result of the collapse has been the end of financial economics as something to be celebrated rather than feared. And Li’s Gaussian copula formula will go down in history as instrumental in causing the unfathomable losses that brought the world financial system to its knees. How could one formula pack such a devastating punch? The answer lies in the bond market, the multitrillion-dollar system that allows pension funds, insurance companies, and hedge funds to lend trillions of dollars to companies, countries, and home buyers”
  • Compiled by Phil Izzo

    Author: John Travis
    • Monday, February 23rd, 2009

    A roundup of economic news from around the Web.

  • Nice Work if You Can Get It: In the New Yorker, James Surowiecki looks at sticky wages during the current recession. “For the employed, then, this recession may be less than awful — if, that is, you can forget about the value of your home and your 401(k). But the very factors that benefit people with jobs — higher productivity and sticky wages—make prospects bleaker for those without them. That’s one reason that it was important for the stimulus package to extend and increase unemployment benefits, as well as create jobs. We’re a more productive, more efficient economy than ever, but that’s cold comfort when you’re on the dole.”
  • Need for Stable Policies: Writing for Scientific American, Jeffrey Sachs says stable policies are more important than stimulus. “We need to avoid reckless short-term swings in policy. Massive deficits and zero interest rates might temporarily perk up spending but at the risk of a collapsing currency, loss of confidence in the government and growing anxieties about the government’s ability to pay its debts. That outcome could frustrate rather than speed the recovery of private consumption and investment. Deficit spending in a recession makes sense, but the deficits should remain limited (less than 5 percent of GNP) and our interest rates should be kept far enough above zero to avoid wild future swings. We should also avoid further gutting the government’s revenues with more rounds of tax cuts. Tax revenues are already too low to cover the government’s bills, especially when we take into account the unmet and growing needs for outlays on health, education, state and local government, clean energy and infrastructure. We will in fact need a trajectory of rising tax revenues to balance the budget within a few years. Most important, we should stop panicking. One of the reasons we got into this mess was the Fed’s exaggerated fear in 2002 and 2003 that the U.S. was following Japan into a decade of stagnation caused by deflation (falling prices). To avoid a deflation the Fed created a bubble. Now the bubble has burst, and we’ve ended up with the deflation we feared! Panics end badly, even panics of policy; more moderate policies will be safer in the medium term.”
  • New Depression?: On his blog, Jeff Frankel takes a critical look at some of the reassurances given for why this recession won’t be as bad as the Great Depression. “How do we really know for sure that this recession won’t reach the league of the economic disaster that was the 1930s? After all, Japan in the 1990s endured a period of essentially zero growth that lasted as long as the Great Depression. Over the last year, forecasters have already marked down their growth forecasts over and over again, both in the U.S. and globally. When the sub-prime mortgage crisis first hit, in the summer of 2007, the Fed and White House said it was “contained.” When instead it spread, freezing up liquidity throughout the financial system, they said that Wall Street was not Main Street. When it became increasingly evident that the entire U.S. economy was in recession, most emphatically including Main Street, many talked of “decoupling:” under which other major economies would remain centers of global growth. Yet this optimistic hope, like the others, soon crumbled away to nothing.”
  • Can’t Pay or Won’t Pay: The Economist says that the success of President Obama’s housing plan will depend on what is driving foreclosures. “Obama’s chances of being any more successful depend on whether his team has correctly diagnosed what is driving the wave of foreclosures. Is it that homeowners cannot afford to pay; or is it that they are declining to do so, because their homes are now worth less than their mortgages, the phenomenon known as negative equity? Both factors play a part, but economists are divided on their relative importance.”
  • Compiled by Phil Izzo