Tag-Archive for ◊ market analysts ◊

Author: admin
• Thursday, February 12th, 2009

Nick Timiraos reports:

The $15,000 homebuyer tax credit didn’t survive the final negotiations on the stimulus bill. Instead, Congress slightly increased to $8,000 an existing $7,500 credit for first-time homebuyers and eliminated repayment provisions.Congressional negotiators said that $8,000 number isn’t yet finalized.

The move was sure to disappoint those who had favored a more generous $15,000 credit for all home buyers in the Senate bill.

The new credit is retroactive to Dec. 31, 2008, which means that anyone who buys a house this year, through August, won’t have to repay it. First time buyers who used the credit in 2008 still have to pay it back over a 15-year period.

The real-estate industry had closely followed the tax credit debate, hoping that a larger credit would make potential buyers more comfortable at a time when declining values and rising job losses have scared off buyers.

Without a larger tax credit, some say more action is needed. “Washington needs to do more at compensating home buyers for the now considerable danger of yet lower home prices,” writes John Lonski, chief economist at Moody’s Investors Service. “The near-term stabilization of either the economy or the financial system may be impossible until the now 5.25% 30-year mortgage yield falls to something no greater than 4.5%, and even the latter may prove to be too costly.”

Interest rates edged up slightly at the end of January, and mortgage applications for new homes fell 14% during the four week period ending Feb. 6 from the previous four weeks.

Readers, does the slimmed down tax credit change your home buying plans?

Author: John Travis
• Friday, November 21st, 2008

A roundup of economic news from around the Web.

  • Lame-Duck Economy: In the New York Times, Paul Krugman worries about a power vacuum at the height of the crisis. “How much can go wrong in the two months before Mr. Obama takes the oath of office? The answer, unfortunately, is: a lot. Consider how much darker the economic picture has grown since the failure of Lehman Brothers, which took place just over two months ago. And the pace of deterioration seems to be accelerating.”
  • Treasury Borrowing for Free: On his blog, Brad Setser says that it’s not a good thing that the Treasury can borrow for free right now. “Treasury yields aren’t hard to calculate. But they are still my favorite indicators of the scale of the current crisis. The fact that so many are willing to lend so much to the US Treasury for so little is a clear indicator of a lack of confidence in other financial asset. Dr. Krugman is right. Market analysts are more or less saying the same thing: ‘“Where the credit markets are trading, it’s all but implying a 1929 scenario,” said Joe Balestrino, fixed income strategist at Federated Investors’”
  • Give Us the Money: On his maverecon blog, William Buiter puts his tongue in his cheek and says that his small company is going to apply to become a bank. “If we cannot get bank holding company status for our company, we will fly our (separate) private jets to Washington DC to appeal for congressional support for our business as a quintessential heartland enterprise. The very fact that we are not systemically important makes us systemically important. The reason is that if we can get money from the U.S. government, anyone can. And if anyone can, there is no longer any reason for fear, excessive caution and pessimism. Consumers will spend again. Banks will lend again. Companies will invest again. Just give us the money.”
  • Compiled by Phil Izzo