A roundup of economic news from around the Web.

Compiled by Phil Izzo

Economists and others weigh in on the much larger than expected decline in U.S. consumer confidence.

Compiled by Phil Izzo

Offer your reactions in the comments section.

Dig into an interactive summary of economists’ forecasts for the coming year from the latest WSJ.com survey.

Columbia Business School’s Raymond Fisman and University of California, Berkeley’s Edward Miguel are development economists who are at the forefront of what’s being dubbed “forensic economics.” Relying on anomalies in everything from Indonesian stock prices to New York City parking tickets to figures on antique imports and exports, they’ve been able uncover the tracks of wrongdoers.

In their new book, “Economic Gangsters,” the two document how forensic economics can be used to root out corruption, offering fresh insights into how aid can be directed to where it’s needed in the developing world, rather than the hands of thugs.

The economists discussed their work with the Journal’s Justin Lahart.

WSJ: You’re development economists who have become keenly interested in the issues surrounding corruption. From an economist’s standpoint, why is rooting out corruption so important to fostering development?

Ted: It’s difficult to separate out the story of global poverty from the problem of corruption. Most countries that remain poor today have suffered under the rule of thieving, corrupt leaders. And it’s easy to see why corruption can undermine economic development. Imagine what the impact on the U.S. economy would be if Al Capone or some other thuggish economic gangster occupied the White House?

Unfortunately, many people in the developing world don’t need to use their imaginations. In kleptocracies from Pakistan to Zimbabwe, corrupt rulers have funneled billions of ill-gotten dollars into Swiss bank accounts that could otherwise have been invested in roads and schools. Understanding the economic motivations of these gangsterish figures is critical for devising policies to fighting them. That’s the goal of our book.

Ray: That being said, there are some countries that have prospered economically even with thoroughly corrupt leadership. Indonesia enjoyed high rates of economic growth for decades under President Suharto’s dictatorship, despite being the most corrupt regime on the planet. It’s crucial to understand the differences between the relatively “benevolent” corruption of Suharto, and the destructive kleptocracies of Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe and others. In Economic Gangsters we lay out the crucial differences between centralized systems of corruption like Suharto’s from the more chaotic situations that prevail in many of the poorest African countries.

WSJ: How different are the economic motivations of the thugs of the world from what motivates the rest of us? Or are they different at all?

Ray: There’s a little economic gangster inside each one of us, who’s rationally adding up the costs and benefits of the choices we make. Yet most of us are also endowed with a conscience that intercedes if our inner accountant starts telling us to kill or steal to make a buck. But the rational gangsters we have in mind — from Al Capone (who was actually an accountant before becoming a Chicago mobster) to the warlords of Somalia — crimes are largely a matter of cost-benefit calculation unencumbered by conscience.

Ted: It’s also the case that when placed in desperate circumstances, all people (including you and me) are reduced to the rational calculus of survival, with conscience a forgone luxury. In the book we describe an economic rationale for witch killings that become endemic in some parts of rural Tanzania in drought years. When times are hard, after the rains fail, rational calculation calls for a reduction in family size, and branding grandma as a witch can provide an excuse for doing the gruesome task that’s called for in the name of survival. In the gruesome lottery of who lives and who dies, elderly women draw the short straw.